Projection of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain

There has been an increase in mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain, with 1705 deaths recorded in 2006. In 2005, a statistical model was developed based on a simple birth-cohort model, which assumes that the risk of mesothelioma depends on age and years of exposure and that an individual’s asbestos exposure depends on the year of exposure. In this report, the model has been refined and refitted using the MATLAB’s fminsearch function and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique.

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